My two earliest areas of both interest and expertise were 1) in business strategy consulting and 2) in cycles. The more I studied and worked in business planning and strategy, the more I realized how important cycles were.
I believe that it’s the individual possessing instinct and vision that outperforms the one following procedure and technique.
When my interest in long-term cycles first began, I remember looking at the Kondratieff Wave and seeing how it showed inflation spikes every 50 to 60 years. They looked exactly like an electrocardiogram… just over a much longer period of time.
Take a look at your next electrocardiogram.
Your heart pumps new blood through your system about 60 times per minute at a very regular rate and yet shows peaks and valleys.
As our earth orbits around the sun every year, it creates the four seasons. The discovery of the direct relationship between the orbit and the seasons was critical to the Agricultural Revolution that emerged in biblical times… and it changed the course of human history.
Our solar system revolves around the center of the Milky Way about every 250 million years.
The tides peak predictably around the world twice a day triggered by the gravitational pull of lunar cycles. And scientists know that ice ages hit about every 100,000 years.
The most important point here is that for predicting any phenomenon, there are typically a few cycles that are critical to that process or trend. If you can identify those key cycles you can see the future in ways that give you a major edge.
For example, the Milankovitch theory dictates that the prediction of major long-term climate cycles is made possible by analyzing three key trends centered on how the earth wobbles, tilts and goes through eccentric orbits in 100,000, 41,000 and 23,000-year cycles.
Those three trends correlate together with ice ages and climate cycles that go back hundreds of thousands of years, and the next one is due around 80,000 years from now.
None of us will be around…
But what’s important to understand here is that the 100,000-year cycle is the most fundamental and it’s the key driver. The other two refine it and make the overall climate cycle much more predictable and precise.
Whether you’re looking at the cycles of the earth or the economy, you have to keep in mind that there are many and the key is not to study all of them, or you’ll end up confused and non-committal like most economists.
I began analyzing the most fundamental economic cycle of modern times… that of middle-class wealth: the Generational Spending Wave.
New generations rise in productivity, income and spending as they age and raise their families.
The magic number for baby boomers is 46. The peak amount of births was in 1961 and 46 years later, their boom ended.
Ever since I found this critical cycle in 1988, I refined my system of forecasting by adding three more cycles and while they are less important, they are essential. They helped refine my system of forecasting: the 36-year Geopolitical Cycle (discovered in 2006), the 8 – 13-year Sunspot Cycle (2013) and the most recent, the 45-year Innovation Cycle (covered in the September issue of Boom and Bust).
All four of these cycles point down together from early 2014 into late 2019 — almost guaranteeing an economic and financial crisis ahead. The last time this occurred was late 1929 to 1933 and late 1969 to 1976 — the worst two economic crises of the last century.
These cycles pointed up together from late 1988 into early 2000 (except for natural gyrations in the sunspot cycle) which saw the greatest stock and economic bubble in modern history.
It has taken me 30 years of painstaking research, refining critical cycles and adding new ones to come up with this seemingly complete hierarchy. When the demographic cycles just weren’t enough to fully explain changes in trends, I began to dig deeper and finally discovered important new ones.
Most economists have no understanding of what I do and don’t understand my forecasts. However, a major shift is coming soon.
I have indicators that don’t just extrapolate past and current trends into the future… I can see around the corners.
At Dent Research, we have a hierarchy of trends that allows you to see the key economic shifts that will impact your life, your family, your business and your investments over the rest of your lifetime… and just in time to prepare for the greatest financial crisis and sale on financial assets of a lifetime.
We also have Adam O’Dell who has a similar hierarchy of cycles and indicators for predicting shorter-terms trends in the markets, sectors and individual securities.
When Adam breaks out his strategies I can see cycles in them. And he is doing something different from most other trading systems.
That is why his investment returns for Cycle 9 Alert have been phenomenal and more consistent than most trading systems I have seen in the past.
And now, he has a new options system.
If you are going to prosper in the most volatile and often downward markets of a lifetime, you need to look at systems like Adam’s.
They have the mark of understanding of how life actually works… in hierarchies of cycles.
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