South Korean Economy – Good Today, Gone Tomorrow?

While the South Korean economy will eventually fall victim to its self-induced demographic vacuum… that development is many years out (as Rodney says above).

Today, the South Korean economy is growing at rates above the global average and its stock market is in a multi-year uptrend.

Take a look at the KOSPI Composite Index, the most-eyed measure of South Korean stocks.

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The S&P500 peaked in 2008 and has yet to fully recover, let alone make new highs. You can see this in the red line above. Yet most mainstream news channels tout the U.S. recovery as far stronger than any other nations’.

But if you look at South Korea’s market, you have to wonder why investors seem bent on looking only inside the U.S. for profitable investments.

The KOSPI peaked in 2008 as all global markets turned down. But it came back much stronger in 2010 and 2011, trading decisively above its previous 2008 peak. This market pulled back in 2011 and made only modest gains of about 6.5% in 2012.

If the risk-on environment prevails in 2013 I expect many South Korean stocks to do well, as investors eye the above-average growth in Asia in hopes for above-average returns.

But 2013 won’t be a breeze for global stocks. With many economic headwinds still facing us, the risk-off environment could reemerge in short notice. We’re expecting the first half of 2013 to be relatively strong, but the second half looks more troubling.

You’ll want to steer clear of South Korean stocks at any hint of a downturn.

If you haven’t done so already read the Survive & Prosperissue on “Demographic Trends show South Korea is Shrinking.”

 

 

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Categories: Markets

About Author

Adam O'Dell has one purpose in mind: to find and bring to subscribers investment opportunities that return the maximum profit with the minimum risk. Adam has worked as a Prop Trader for a spot Forex firm. While there, he learned the fundamentals of trading in the world’s largest market. He excelled at trading the volatile currency markets by seeking out low-risk entry points for trades with high profit potential. An MBA graduate and Affiliate Member of the Market Technicians Association, Adam is a lifelong student of the markets. He is editor of our hugely successful trading service, Cycle 9 Alert.