Archive - October 2015

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Investors: Don’t Fall for an Earnings Trap

Earnings estimates for the S&P 500 in 2016 have been trimmed by as much as 6%. A lot of the growth we have seen has been generated through financial engineering.

Health Care

Move Over, Humans: The Next Evolution in Science?

The difference between this and, say, the traditional human-based, hypothesis-driven science is a simply one: humans are prone to bias and error. Computers aren’t.

Business Cycle

What Politicians Don’t Understand About the Economy

If you want to see the future, it’s important to understand and plot out proven cycles. You can’t listen to some politician that thinks he or she has a vision.


Stocks: The Next Five Years Will Likely Pale in Comparison

The stock market’s not the “be-all and end-all.” Sure, it’s had a great run since early 2009. But the bull market won’t last forever, and may have already ended.

Interest Rates

Negative Interest Rates: The Fed Might Do the Unthinkable

The Fed has achieved some of its goals, but only because its European peers have brutally failed. Most likely, it won’t raise rates. They might drop below zero.


Short Sellers Smelled Blood… and Got Oprah

While the shorts were counting their profits, they didn’t count on Oprah Winfrey coming in and taking a $43.2 million stake in the company.


The Debt Ceiling Debate: What Congress Should Be Talking About

Congress is focused on what to spend, when that’s already been decided. They should be talking about HOW MUCH we spend, which is what the national debt is all about.

Central Banks

Past the Point of Fundamentals: It’s All on the Central Banks

Fundamentals don’t matter in today’s market. Investors aren’t looking at the state of our economy. They’re just looking for more help from central banks.

Demographic Trends

Harry Dent at the 16th World Knowledge Forum

I doubt you can guess where my book The Demographic Cliff is doing best. It isn’t the United States. It’s not even Australia, where I’ve also had extensive media coverage.


Note to Alphabet, Google, Whatever: Pay a Dividend, You Baby

Alphabet, it’s time to put on your big boy pants and start paying a dividend. You’re a responsible adult [company] now. Just do it.