Why Weight Loss is Booming

How many weight-loss commercials do you see on TV every night?

Even more than for reverse mortgages, it seems.

And practically every one of those ads is endorsed by some celebrity or other.

There is a reason such ads are working so well… it’s the demographics of weight gain!

Multilevel marketing organizations that focus largely on health and wellness are seeing great success and growth in their weight-loss products as well.

This boom comes as no surprise to me.

After studying demographic facts and trends for more than 30 years now, I know that almost everything is affected by demographics… the aging of individuals, and more important, generations of people who are born or immigrate together.

People change and do very predictable things as they age. This is a huge insight that economists and most businesses miss…

That’s a pity because, as the largest generation in history, the baby boomers will remain the most dominant generation in the sectors where they’ll spend more… especially after their recent peak in overall spending in 2007.

And they’ll remain dominant for the next few decades as they continue to age.

One of the most compelling sectors this generation is driving at the moment — and will continue to drive for the coming decade — is weight loss. Just look at this chart…

See larger image

In my special research report, Spending Waves, I show how spending grows and peaks, in over a hundred key consumer sectors, over our life cycle.

I painstakingly gathered this data from 10 years’ worth of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statitic’s massive Consumer Expenditures Survey. And it took a lot of money, time and analysis to get enough data to drill down into smaller sectors of consumer spending.

We knew it would be worth it because consumer life cycles and aging affect every sector. The consumption of things like cribs, starter homes, motorcycles, RVs, and funeral homes vary dramatically throughout a generational spending cycle with surges that peak in a matter of years, not just decades.

And the chart above takes demographics to a new level.

It shows that aging even impacts weight.

In fact, I saw in a book a while back that kids gain the most weight into age 14 as their growth accelerates. That’s the calorie cycle that drives potato chips and junk foods, and that peaks at age 42 for the average household (when parents are buying all that food for their growing kids).

After that surge, weights grow more incrementally.

Men average 142 pounds when they’re 15 years old. Their weight peaks at 185 pounds when they’re between the ages of 60 and 70. Then it drops back to 167 pounds by age 80.

Women weigh on average 123 pounds when they’re 15… about 155 pounds between the ages of 55 and 60… and then 139 pounds by age 80.

So, to see when businesses in the weight loss arena will boom, you simply move the birth index in the U.S. forward by 60 years, to where weight (and hence weight-loss interest) peaks between the two sexes.

According to my research, the specific duration of this weight-loss boom will be from now until at least 2021 for women and 2031 for men. That’s the next eight to 18 years!

But that’s not all demographics can show us…

Here are some of the key consumer sectors that will benefit from the aging of the massive baby boom ahead:

  • Discretionary health and wellness
  • Overseas travel
  • Health, insurance, and financial planning
  • Recreational vehicles (RVs)
  • Cruise ships
  • Downtown condos and exurban, active retirement communities
  • Landscaping and home maintenance services
  • Pharmaceuticals and vitamins
  • Funeral homes and cremation services
  • Nursing homes and assisted living facilities
  • And, of course, Viagra!

That’s the great thing about demographics: There’s always something booming… even in times like the great deflation and the downturn I see from 2014 to 2019.

Harry

P.S. Adam O’Dell, editor of Cycle 9 Alert and portfolio manager for Boom & Bust works closely with us to identify the next big demographic trend and then isolates the one investment that can help you profit from it. Learn more here.

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Categories: Life Cycle

About Author

Harry studied economics in college in the ’70s, but found it vague and inconclusive. He became so disillusioned by the state of the profession that he turned his back on it. Instead, he threw himself into the burgeoning New Science of Finance, which married economic research and market research and encompassed identifying and studying demographic trends, business cycles, consumers’ purchasing power and many, many other trends that empowered him to forecast economic and market changes.