What the Cycles Are Saying About 2017 and 2018

Teresa vd Barselaar, reporting LIVE from the IES 2017

There’s just one day left of the 2017 Irrational Economic Summit, and I speak for all of us when I say, “We’re exhausted!”

The amount of information being shared here, at the Nashville Airport Marriott conference center is, quite honestly, overwhelming.

One attendee told me, This is very good, quality information. Overall, the blend of subjects makes this very interesting. Each speaker brings a special theme, perspective, and way of thinking. That makes this conference constantly interesting.”

Shana T. said, “It’s like skimming the surface of a huge cage here. We’re scooping off that thick layer of icing and now we’re dying to dig into the cake itself!

Tim C. noted, This is the second Irrational Economic Summit I’ve been too. I was in West Palm Beach last year. It’s all interesting. The only reason I’m here is to hear when to get out of this market!

At lunch, Adam O’Dell told me, The speakers this year are fascinating. It’s the most diverse collection of ideas we’ve ever brought to the table.

Every year we’ve improved on the year before. Just imagine what the Irrational Economic Summit in Austin Texas next year will be like!

This morning we’re scheduled to hear from John Del Vecchio, Charles Sizemore, and Howard Lindzon. More on what they have to say later today.

For now, let’s recap what the speakers shared with guests and listeners Friday afternoon…

At 1:45 p.m. Central Time, Andrew Swan, Founder of LikeFolio, kicked off the afternoon session talking about how social data is transforming investment research.

Actually, he started out talking about Pat Day and how the Hall of Fame jockey would go to the back end of the track every day of his career so he could see how the horses were feeling. As readers of Harry, Rodney, Adam, Charles, John, and Lance, you’re like Pat Day, he said: You’re in this to win this!

Then he told the story of Pappy Van Winkle bourbon and how, over the course of one year, the liquor store that sold the brand went from being unable to move it to holding a raffle for the rights for 30 of the 1,500 people standing outside to buy the remaining bottles!

And you could see this coming if you’d been watching Twitter trends!

LikeFolio has an agreement with Twitter that sends a copy of every tweet posted to its servers. It then analyzes each tweet to determine how a product name is being referred to (positive or negative) and if there’s an intent to purchase. The result of that information is a significant advantage over Wall Street. It gives an edge by seeing the shifts in consumer spending patterns before anyone else!

Proof is in the pudding.

LikeFolio projected that Apple Watch would sell nine million to 14 million units in 2015, well below analysts’ expectations. They were laughed off the stage for that call, which turned out to be spot on!

The company also warned that Decker’s UGGs (shoes) weren’t going to do well in the upcoming holiday season. It didn’t. You can listen to all the details here.

You can also get the LikeFolio app, from which you can subscribe to alerts that will tell you when Andy is warning about a company or signaling an upturn. And it’s all free.

When Barry Potekin, VP of the Rutsen Meier Belmont (RMB) Group, took the mike, it was to talk about managed futures. The big question is, if not now, when?

His point is that the world is changing, and it’s changing fast. There are genies popping out of the bottles all the time now. So stay nimble and agile.

Also, diversify; it’s impossible to know what will trigger the next crisis.

Richard Smith, Founder and CEO of Tradestops – a platform that all of our Dent Research editors use to manage their respective portfolios’ stop loss levels – stood up to talk about the billionaire quant portfolio that beats the market by more than 330%.

Sounds too good to be true, doesn’t it? Only it absolutely is true, and Richard provided all the evidence and then some…

Just by managing your portfolio better, you can increase your profits many-fold. For example…

To hear the rest of what Richard said, watch the recording now. Of particular note are the stories of the billionaires who made massive mistakes that were completely avoidable.

And remember, here are the rules to best the billionaire portfolio:

  1. Stay out of the red zone.
  2. Keep average VQ below 40%.
  3. Only buy is trade is positive on entry.
  4. Maximum number of entries is 25.
  5. Minimum number of entries is 10.
  6. Keep portfolio risk-balanced at each step.
  7. Replace stopped out position with next buy.

Finally, it was Andrew Pancholi’s turn to take the stage. Andrew is the man who almost out-cycled Harry at last year’s Irrational Economic Summit. And he’s co-author of Harry’s latest book, Zero Hour, which is out on November 15. I edited the book for Harry and Andrew, and I’ll tell you: Andy’s grasp of cycles is rivaled only by Harry’s. He proved this again yesterday afternoon.

Did you know that the Berlin Wall stood for 28 years? It was also 28 miles long!

Andy loves ALL the details!

Here are some those details that he shared on Friday afternoon…

  • 2017 is a major tipping point. It’s the nexus where three major cycles – the three
  • Harry shared in his presentation on Thursday – collide!
  • As we get into the next decade, Russia will see the 250-year anniversary of the Pugachev’s Rebellion Peasants’ War. Russia is going to change dramatically!
  • There is a mathematical order to all events.
  • A key cycle is a 72-year cycle. If you take the 1929 crash and add 72 and that takes you to the 2001 equity tops. Back 72 years and we saw the 1857 panic.
  • The next one in the cycle is 144, and this one is particularly strong in commodity markets. 1720 was the South Sea Bubble and the Mississippi Land Crisis. 144 years later was the civil war. Cotton was trading at two cents to three cents per pound. The war broke out and prices exploded to $1.99 per pound! 144 years later we had the commodity boom.
  • The 100-year cycle is also interesting. In 1907 there was the Rich Man’s Panic. In 2007 we had the Global Financial Crisis. In the half cycle of 50 years, there were runs on banks in every case.

Andy then shared his macro case for 2017, and it was chilling.

One of the attendees, who was sitting behind me, commented, as Andy was taking the stage, This guy is brilliant! You’ve got to listen to him. By the end of Andy’s talk, I’m sure everyone in the room felt the same way!

After the speeches in the main ballroom wrapped up, speakers and attendees split off into various workshops. I couldn’t get to each one, of course, having only one body. But LIVE Stream viewers, and anyone who gets access to the Irrational Economic Summit Archive Kit, were and can watch them all! And watch them you must!

Rodney talked about earning profits in an uncertain world.

Barry talked about how the sun should shine on silver soon.

Harry and Andy held a panel discussion.

Richard Smith talked about how to beat the billionaires.

Andrew Swan explained how to take action on investments using social data.

And Zack Hutson (of Privateer Holdings) shared details about how to invest in legal cannabis.

All of the workshops were recorded and you can watch them in the Irrational Economic Summit Archive Kit, available here.

This afternoon I’ll review the speakers and events from this morning’s session, but, so far, it’s safe to say that the Irrational Economic Summit 2017 has been a huge success.

What’s been your highlight of the conference so far? Write to me at economyandmarkets@dentresearch.com or leave me a note via Twitter or on our Facebook page.

Until tomorrow morning, then, reporting live from the Irrational Economic Summit 2017…

Teresa

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In our new infographic What Killed the Middle Class?, we take a look at some shocking numbers to show how bad it’s become and what has been fueling this middle-class revolt.

 

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Categories: Economy