Late last night, Harry sent the team an update on his crash forecast for this quarter.
And you’ve just got to read it.
Here’s what he wrote…
There is now a grand succession of four stock market patterns that point to a major top around late April or early May at about 1,920 on the S&P 500 and 17,200 on the Dow. I will give subscribers all the details in the upcoming Boom & Bust issue.
Those patterns combine with the fact that, for the first time since between 1930 and 1934, my key long-term cycles point down at the same time. And they head down from now until late 2019, with the strongest short-term cycles starting down in 2014 and 2018.
AND the sunspots have been roaring again lately. It looks like they’ll be putting in a top soon… but a bit later than the best scientists who study them forecast. Still, topping they must be as this cycle is the longest I’ve seen in the last 200 years. It’s at 14 years from top to top, whereas 9 to 13 is the range and 10 to 11 is the most typical.
I love this as no one sees this coming. Even Ned Davis doesn’t understand the very basis of his breakthrough Decennial Cycle. I think I do, but only as of recently.
I smell blood here!
There looks to be at least a minor correction just ahead before we likely see stocks go to new highs. THEN we’ll see all hell break loose.
A few key technical indicators aren’t confirming a top here either. If they do in the months ahead, then we could be in some serious trouble. I don’t know if I would bet the house on that in this Fed-manipulated market. But I’m watching this like a hawk… and I know Adam’s doing the same. Ultimately, you have to go more with the charts and chart patterns when looking at shorter-term tops and bottoms — fundamental trends won’t help much here.
But again, I see a major confluence like I have never seen before.
Maybe Robert Prechter is right when he says I’m too bullish. Maybe we do see his 600 to 800 targets on the Dow in the next decade!
I feel like my forecast for the next great crash this year is like the one I made in early October 2002, when I said: ‘This is the greatest configuration of technical and fundamental cycles I have ever seen. If you don’t buy here, I don’t know where you would.’
More broadly, my forecast feels like the one I made in late 1992 in the Great Boom Ahead… except this one’s even more precise and much more imminent… and imminent means everything!
I’ll give paid Boom & Bust subscribers, the Network guys, and the lifetime members more details over the next few weeks, but know that the biggest threat to investors is the likely meltdown between early to mid-2014 and late 2016. This will be like the 1973 to 1974 crash, the worst since the Great Depression… only this one will be the next Great Depression! It’ll be worse than 1973 to 1974 or 2008 to 2009.
If something like this does not happen in the next few years, I’ll eat my hat in public. And if we don’t see clear signs of this by the end of 2014, with a more than a 20% stock correction, I will re-consider my forecasts. – Harry
There you have it.
Stay alert and keep reading your Survive & Prosper issues for further updates. And if you’d like more details on Harry’s forecast, you can watch this interview.
Ahead of the Curve
With the Fed keeping interest rates artificially pinned to the floor, income-oriented investors have been forced out of traditional investments, like bonds, in search of higher-yielding vehicles. Dividend-paying stocks are a natural place to look.