This is what I predicted the day after Trump’s election.
He has the impulse control of a grease fire. And he certainly can’t admit when he’s wrong, even though he changes his mind on one policy or view after the next.
There’s something disturbing about that. More disturbing than Richard Nixon’s paranoia that led to the Watergate scandal.
Andrew Pancholi, a close friend and author of The Market Timing Report, has a 45-year cycle that corresponds to the Watergate crisis in 1972.
The cycle rolls around again this year!
Trump is making an enemy out of the media. Yes, reporters, journalists, and all the other talking heads have their flaws, but they’re more objective than the President!
If there is any “fake news,” it’s coming more from him.
He fires anyone that may come against him, like Comey at the FBI…
That was not a smart move by any political calculation.
He has “Reagan-like” supply-side policies, not only for the U.S. and world economy, but even for China, that has excess capacity (supply) to last for more than 10 years.
His tax cut plans will only benefit the rich, business owners, and the corporate elite.
While I have no love lost for the man, many of my readers either support Trump or wish for his critics to give him a chance. But if this was any other man (or woman) proposing what Trump is, and doing what Trump has done, they’d get the same response from me: None of these policies are appropriate for the Economic Winter Season, which is characterized by deflation.
Since working with Bain & Company consulting Fortune 500 companies, I’ve told anyone who’d listen – businesses and individuals alike – that you need a different strategy for each season of the economy.
And if you follow Trump down his rabbit hole, you’ll find yourself in the middle of a snow storm with nothing but your sunglasses on!
His repeal and reform of Obamacare has been a disaster.
His tax cuts and de-regulations are looking questionable.
The Russian collusion issue looks worse every day.
And he’ll never pull off the 3% to 4% sustainable growth he’s promised – even if he cuts all taxes and regulations to zero. It’s simply demographically impossible.
So how’s he going to get out of this quagmire?!
I don’t think he can. At least not as President.
With growing calls for impeachment and increasing resistance from Congress, I think he’ll simply resign. Then he’ll dedicate his efforts to a “make America great again” media campaign instead of fighting a bureaucracy that is “more complicated than he thought.” And he’ll say this was his plan all along.
I’ve said this since last November: Leaders that shake up things are more likely to get shot. Just look at what happened to Kennedy and Lincoln.
I also said from the beginning that Trump would be more effective for the struggling everyday white working class as an unregulated, independent voice in the media. I don’t think he wanted to become President. I think he banked on losing!
Win he did, though, and now he’s complaining that he’s been more unfairly treated than any other president in U.S. history. He’s in a no-win position, and even his wife and son are unhappy with the life they now live.
So, I stand by my forecast – like it or not – that Trump won’t last his first year.
And his removal or resignation from the White House will be bad for the markets.
Be sure to keep reading your Economy & Market emails daily. As this situation, as well as the many others we’re watching closely, unfold, we’ll keep you updated and prepared for whatever happens.
Follow me on Twitter @harrydentjr