Last Wednesday, I wrote to you about the 70-year Globe Buster – the second iteration of the 35-year Geopolitical Cycle that brings with it chaos and global agony during its negative turn.
And man! This cycle has truly been brutal. 9/11. Civil wars. The Arab Spring. Mass shootings. White supremacist terror attacks. In fact, more terror attacks than any of us care to think about… the latest being the terror attack in Sri Lanka on Easter Sunday. At least 290 killed… on a holy day meant for rest and worship…
My deepest condolences to the families of all those lost at the whim of gutless brutes.
I am relieved that this cycle turns back up in a few years. But that brings into play the larger 250-year Political Revolution Cycle that is mushrooming.
The last time a confluence of revolution cycles came together like this was during the emergence of the American Revolution between 1765 and 1783. The simultaneous advent of democracy, free-market capitalism, and the Industrial Revolution was, in retrospect, the most important event of modern history.
Do you realize in the crescendo year of 1776 that we saw the Declaration of Independence signed, the perfection and patenting of the steam engine, and the publishing of Adam Smith’s infamous book on capitalism, The Wealth of Nations?
The last 250-year cycle was preceded by the massive Protestant Reformation of the early 1500s, which still shapes Europe and Christian religions around the world today. But that revolution was joined by an 84-year Populist Revolution Cycle and a 28-Year Financial Crisis Cycle.
No wonder that created such a massive impact.
And it’s happening again today…
Hitler and Trump
The last Populist Cycle saw Hitler become Chancellor of Germany in January 1933, exactly 84 years before Trump became President in January 2017… these may be different populist backlashes, but populist revolutions they clearly are.
The last financial crisis was in the late 1980s/early 1990s with the S&L crisis and recession.
So that’s the big insight here…
The adverse Geopolitical Cycle that started with radical Muslim attacks on the U.S. on 9/11, followed by more in Europe, civil wars across the Middle East, and mass shootings in America is now reaching its bottom around late 2019/early 2020 as forecast.
The rise of white supremacist terrorist acts against Muslims, immigrants, and foreign workers… the yawning income inequality across the face of America and Europe… all set the stage for the election of Trump, Brexit, and a larger political revolution that is still playing out. We’ll see the biggest impacts and reforms ahead, between 2020 and 2023-plus.
There will be great changes ahead and very likely democratic administrations for many years to come to bring in reforms like those of the Great Depression. But these will be greater than even those concocted during the 1930s and 1940s due to this larger, more painful cycle.
All of this brings with it opportunity. There’s no gain without pain, as I explain in my April edition of The Leading Edge. And after the pain of these cycles, the sale of a lifetime will follow in due course.