Have you seen Ford’s latest TV ad campaign? The one with the tag line: “And is better…”
There’s the one about sweet or sour chicken.
The one about wet or wild.
And my favorite, the one about large or in charge.
As creative, amusing, and annoying as these commercials are, they strike at the heart of everything.
Could we have human life without men and women? Obviously not! Even if we found a way to reproduce without the other sex, how would life be without men and women balancing each other’s strengths and weaknesses?
Could we function without sleep and wakefulness? Of course not! Even with all the 5-Hour-Energies and Red-Bulls out there, sleep is literally life saving.
Could we have a democracy without Republicans and Democrats? No. That would be called dictatorship.
Yet it’s human nature to hate opposites, like booms and busts, inflation and deflation, new innovations and the fall of old trusted technologies and industries. We strive to achieve or maintain just one.
But not only is that stupid, it’s impossible.
This play of opposites is the very essence of life. It’s what creates energy and drives growth, just like the positive and negative poles of a battery. These principles exist in science and evolution, in history, in psychology, in politics, and of course, in economics.
How long do companies or individuals grow and excel before their success creates complacency and failure?
How long do we accept failure before we get sick of it, learn valuable lessons, innovate, and grow with resolve again?
That’s why, as much as I hate cycles – just like you and every other human being – when they create challenges and difficulties in my life, I don’t fight them… I embrace them. That’s because I know that the greatest innovations that drive our technological progress and growth in standard of living come out of those downturns and challenges.
In fact, the most radical innovations like the combustion engine, electricity, phones, computers, the jet engine, and radar arose during the winter economic seasons and deflationary downturns between the 1880s to 1890s and the 1930s to 1940s.
The killer apps that take such radical technologies into the mainstream come in the summer economic seasons (or inflationary periods). Examples here include the microchip, personal computers, operating systems, cell phones, and time-share computing (the forefather of the Internet), which gained traction back in the late 1960s through the early 1980s.
Winter and deflation, summer and inflation are opposite principles that will always duel, alternately dominating and waning to create progress.
And right now, we’ve seen the greatest boom in history, which we called for decades in advance thanks to our fundamental demographic and technology tools and cycles. But when the cycle began its inevitable turn, the government, business, and consumers launched a resistance.
We don’t want to experience any pain or suffer any austerity. Neither did Japan, and thanks to its government’s efforts, the economy deteriorates daily in its 20-years-and-counting comatose state.
With their refusal to embrace the natural cycle of opposites, governments are killing the golden goose of capitalism. They’re not letting the old debt deleverage… they’re not letting banks and businesses fail… and so they’re not letting new innovations emerge out of those ashes.
As Jim Cramer would say: “These people know nothing!”
We need a crisis to force the system to break down and correct itself. I’m talking about more than just eliminating a lot of unproductive debt and businesses here. I’m talking about destroying the corruption of special interests that now dominates everything.
Fortunately our best cycles – demographic, geopolitical, commodity and sun spot – all point to that crisis unfolding from 2014 to 2019.
And this is the only time since 1930 to 1934 that these cycles have pointed downwards simultaneously. That means it’s not a 50/50 chance for an economic winter season ahead. It’s more like a 90% chance that we’ll finally get “the pause that refreshes.” In other words, it’s not a chance at all. It’s a near certainty.
That makes NOW your chance to prepare for the crash and the boom that will follow. Think of this as your chance to grab a golden goose just for yourself.
|Follow me on Twitter @HarryDentjr|
Ahead of the Curve with Adam O’Dell
Ten-year Treasury-bond yields rose sharply – in other words bond prices fell sharply – from May to September as investors prepared for the Fed taper that never happened.