I should’ve looked a bit more closely at the schedule for our second annual Irrational Economic Summit. I didn’t realize that my speaking slot was right after Harry Dent and before David Stockman. That’s like hitting near the top of the lineup for the Yankees. My presentation could be great, but the comparison is pretty tough, no matter what.
At least I can take comfort in my research. The ideas I’m presenting over the next several days in three different presentations are key to understanding where we are today, and what lies ahead. I’m diving deeper into the U.S. dollar, fleshing out the state of the average American family and providing a look at jobs of the future.
My main stage presentation is all about the U.S. dollar, and how its value will change in the months and years ahead. Spoiler alert! We see the dollar getting stronger, not weaker. This is not much of a spoiler, since it has been our position for years. Now that the greenback is earning respect by making gains against peers such as the euro and the yen, other analysts are coming around to our way of thinking.
But dollar strength doesn’t tell the whole story…
A Strong Currency
To understand why the U.S. dollar will remain strong and even strengthen, we have to grasp how the dollar is viewed and used around the world. A reserve currency? Yes… but it’s much more! Looking at who holds dollars — and who doesn’t — gives some much-needed perspective on the situation and allows us to confidently estimate where the currency will go from here.
After discussing the U.S. dollar, I’ll share some of the information I’ve parsed from the Federal Reserve’s 2013 tri-annual Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF). This study provides two things: a current look at the financial health of households in the U.S. and a comparison with previous years. The SCF has been conducted every three years since the late 1980s, and the results are reported in real, or inflation-adjusted, terms, making it simple to compare results.
Just as with the U.S. dollar, our takeaway won’t come as any surprise. Consumers are in a tough place. But the actual change in income over time is worth reviewing, because it speaks to how consumers will act in the years to come, and what sort of economic recovery we can expect based on their spending.
The final presentation on my schedule will cover a new topic — jobs of the future. I’ll walk through our current employment situation and what we see during the rest of the economic winter season. In this area, the results of our research will surprise you, as we see the employment situation unfolding very differently than other research groups.
I’ll also provide attendees with the best and worst potential jobs for the years to come, as well as the positions most likely to be automated. This might not be applicable to most of our audience, but I know many in our group are like me, they have kids who are in college or are recent graduates. The information in this presentation is tailor-made to help the young generation choose careers that have the best chance for longevity and income growth!
I’m looking forward to speaking with those of you that make the trip to Miami for the conference!