Did You See the Moonwalking Bear?

We wrapped up our fifth annual Irrational Economic Summit on Saturday. What an experience!

This morning, when I opened my email, I had this note from LIVE Stream viewer Murray B.:

What a brilliant event again by you all…

My thanks to everyone involved for a great event, with common-sense speakers from many backgrounds, confirming that we really are on a calamitous path, coming to everyone on the planet, with no solution this time.

The “Great Financial Crisis,” as it is termed, was wrongly named, as it really was only a warning of what is to come very soon. Like a tsunami. Unstoppable.

I cannot believe the utter stupidity of central bankers believing that a debt problem can be solved with much more DEBT, blindly following some experimental Keynesian model into oblivion, without seeing the WRONG WAY signs.

Mr. B, thank you for the note. It was a wonderful way to start Monday morning.

As I said in my last email, we still had Andrew Sandoe to speak after lunch on Saturday and then a couple of workshops to close us out. As the senior partner and chief investment officer at Fidelis Capital Management, Andrew spoke about why value investors consistently win.

It was the presentation he wishes he’d gotten when he started investing. He would have avoided years reading and learning about strategies that ultimately had a low likelihood of succeeding.

His goal on Saturday was to help you avoid wasting time.

His first recommendation: Of the 43,279 investing titles you could find at Barnes & Noble, there are only THREE worth reading…

Andrew went on to prove that with value investing, you can achieve greater returns for less risk.

He also shared three rules for successful stock buying and the one golden rule to ALWAYS follow.

Then he played a YouTube clip to demonstrate how fallible humans are. Simply by me asking you if you saw the moonwalking bear, I’ve ruined the test for you. But he played the video for the 400 people in the Nashville Airport Marriott, among whom only three had seen it!

To hear all the details for yourself, access to Irrational Economic Summit archive kit now (access to this kit will close on Wednesday night so if you don’t have your username and password by then, then you’re out of luck).

Andrew wrapped up with one suggestion and three takeaways:

  1. Google and then watch Charlie Munger’s speech “24 Sources of Human Misjudgment.”
  2. Value investing beats all other strategies on both an absolute and risk-adjusted basis.
  3. Quantitative value returns beat fundamental value.
  4. Ted Williams, arguably the greatest hitter who ever lived, literally wrote the book on the science of hitting. His empirical advice: Only swing in the red or the orange.

It was a fascinating, enlightening talk.

Before we wrap up the on-the-ground reporting for this year, let’s quickly recap what we heard Thursday, Friday, and Saturday…

On Thursday, October 12:

  • Harry Dent kicked off the conference with his presentation on how you can turn the greatest political and financial upheaval in modern history to your advantage. He talked about some of his key insights, one of the most important of which is that three revolutionary cycles are converging for the first time since the late 1700s, when we saw the emergence of democracy and free-market capitalism, the steam engine, and the Industrial Revolution. In short, Harry’s recommendation is to get out sooner rather than later. It’s what Baron Rothschild credits for his success. But he doesn’t believe you should run for cover. Instead, there are opportunities out there to take advantage of now… and even after the crash has started.
  • Brendan Kennedy, CEO of Privateer Holdings, shared one such opportunity when he took the stage after Harry. His goal: to explain how to invest in legal cannabis. His message: Do it carefully… but do it!
  • Michael Terpin, founder and CEO of Transform Group, presented via Skype. Michael is Harry’s go-to bitcoin expert. His message was about how to invest in what’s forecast to soon be a $5 trillion asset class. This is scary for many people, but what few know is that there will only ever be 21 million bitcoins. The other thing is, you just never know with disruptive technology. For more details from his talk, including the first product bought using bitcoin and why cryptocurrency is really the equivalent of digital gold, watch the archives.
  • Stephen Sandford, author of The Gravity Well, took the stage to talk about the final frontier and how close the opportunities really are. This talk really struck a chord with the audience. There’s just something so captivating about space, and most attendees still remember Neil Armstrong’s first step on the moon and the Challenger disaster. He had a warning: Let’s not make the irreparable mistake the Chinese did when they turned back their world-renowned sailing fleet.

On Friday, October 13:

  • Rodney Johnson talked about the next phase of energy. As he explained, oil was once the ticket, but batteries are now changing the world. Once we can store energy, we get control, and that’s going to make some people very angry. It’s truly energy, money, and control, and Rodney walked us through the history of oil to prove it.
  • Raoul Pal, founder of RealVision TV, talked about the global risks according to the “Masters of the Markets.” He started by sharing a very interesting video, which I recommend you watch if you missed it. It was about the drumbeats that Raoul and his contacts are hearing right now.
  • Adam O’Dell’s message was about how primal fear kills investor performance (quite appropriate considering Raoul’s message)… and what you can do to overcome it. His message: Understanding and conquering fear is the key to your success as an investor.
  • Mark Gordon, CEO of Odyssey Marine Exploration, shared details of an unbelievable nightmare he had to endure, and the invaluable lesson it taught him about surviving adversity.
  • Lacy Hunt discussed five different hypotheses for the economy. He’s the only economist that Harry trusts, and he’s been a regular at our conferences over the years. There were an incredible number of fascinating facts. Make sure you watch the recording of Dr. Hunt’s presentation to hear it all.
  • Andrew Swan, founder of LikeFolio, talked about how social data is transforming investment research. He started out with a story about Pat Day and how the Hall of Fame jockey would go to the back end of the track every day of his career so he could see how the horses were feeling. As readers of Harry, Rodney, Adam, Charles, John, and Lance, you’re like Pat Day, who said, “You’re in this to win this!” Then he told the story of Pappy Van Winkle bourbon and how, over the course of one year, the liquor store that sold the brand went from being unable to move it to holding a raffle for the rights for 30 of the 1,500 people standing outside to buy the remaining bottles! And you could see this coming if you’d been watching Twitter trends!
  • Barry Potekin, VP of the Rutsen Meier Belmont (RMB) Group, took the mike to talk about managed futures, addressing the big question, if not now, when? His point is that the world is changing, and it’s changing fast. There are genies popping out of the bottles all the time now. So stay nimble and agile.
  • Richard Smith, founder and CEO of Tradestops – a platform that all of our Dent Research editors use to manage their respective portfolios’ stop loss levels – stood up to talk about the billionaire quant portfolio that beats the market by more than 330%. Sounds too good to be true, but it is a fact! And Richard provided all the evidence and then some…
  • Andrew Pancholi is the man who almost out-cycled Harry at last year’s Irrational Economic Summit. And he’s co-author of Harry’s latest book, Zero Hour, which is out on November 15. He shared the most amazing details about the cycles underway that you’ve just got to watch it for yourself.

On Saturday, October 14:

  • John showed guests and LIVE Stream viewers how to find hidden profits… He started with the number 761. Every minute of every day, the company John talked about produces 761 units. So how can it offer hidden profits, especially if it produces 400 million of these iconic units each year? Well, John explained.
  • Lance revealed how to profit from interest rate volatility… He started by arguing that the Federal Reserve is out of control (which is good for those profits he later talked about). And he gave an interesting history of central banks and how the Fed was created. All of this was to explain that the Treasury market is far from boring… that small moves in yield can create big price swings… that a big move in price means a bigger in the ETF… and that a big move in the ETF means an even bigger move in the option.
  • Charles showed more passion for finding income in a low-yield world than anyone I’ve ever seen talk about this topic. He shared a story about the difference between his grandfather and his father retiring. The former retired with not a care in the world. He was financially secure. The latter is in a very different situation. Boomers retiring today are completely on their own. The horrifying news is that most financial plans are toast, especially if they’re prepared on the assumption of 4% withdrawal levels in retirement. Studies done by two different research firms found that with such plans there’s a 30% to 57% chance that you’ll run out of money. So, he set out to help attendees find yield without hunting for it.
  • Howard Lindzon, founding editor of Peloton, talked about spotting trends earlier and getting ahead of the SaaS (software as a service) wave… and he certainly has experience with both! He shared eight market truths, which you can listen to here.

That’s it.

Our fifth annual Irrational Economic Summit is done and dusted! And it was a huge success.

A big thank you to all of those involved in its organization: Amanda Klein, Megan Johnson, Kelly Secoura, Stephanie Gerardot, and Shannon Sands (to name but a few).

A big thank you to all the speakers: Harry, Rodney, Charles, Adam, Lance, John, Andrew Pancholi, Andrew Sandoe, Brendan Kennedy, Dr. Lacy Hunt, Michael Terpin, Stephen Sandford, Raoul Pal, Mark Gordon, Andrew Swan, Dr. Richard Smith, Barry Potekin, and Howard Lindzon.

A big thank you to all those who joined us in Nashville and who watched via LIVE Stream.

And a big thank you to you for reading this on-the-ground reporting.

Until the sixth annual Irrational Economic Summit in Austin, Texas, this is Teresa signing off.

Teresa

Dollar: The Currency is Here to Stay

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Categories: Economy