Inflation is like temperatures in the economy. High inflation is like the hot temperatures of summer.
Deflation is like the declining and freezing temperatures of winter. Mild inflation comes in spring and fall. Inflation is also a result of productivity.
When a new generation is entering the work force, it costs more money to train them and accommodate them, so inflation rises (but more on that another time).
This is important to note because that’s when the economy does the best – during spring and fall – because productivity rises during those seasons.
And during the challenging winter and summer seasons, we see the greatest innovations. In the winter season in particular, recession and economic collapse are the order of the day.
The baby boomer generation created a fall bubble boom from 1983 into 2007, when it moved into the workforce, adopted the information revolution into the mainstream and then peaked in its spending and productivity.
Now we’re in the winter season, where we deleverage the debt and speculation borne during the fall bubble boom. We force businesses to consolidate. To get lean and mean.
We shift market share to the long-term winners who have greater scale to bring even lower prices for consumers in the future.