Harry Dent | Thursday, February 14, 2013 >>
Get a pen and write this down:
2023 – 2036.
Or set a reminder in your calendar to remember those dates.
Or tattoo them onto some part of your body (but know I hate tattoos… who wants to see the remnants of a dragon curled around a wrinkly bicep or flabby thigh on gran or grandpa? I shudder to imagine.)
My point is, remember those dates because that’s when we’ll see our next boom. Guaranteed!
Between now and 2019 we face the perfect storm.
And the next technology revolution is brewing this very minute.
We know all of this thanks to the cycles I’ve identified over the years, and which I use to forecast booms and busts years – even decades – ahead.
Now these cycles are clearly pointing to the next concerted boom…
Now I’m willing to bet money that you’ve been taught to believe that forecasting long-term is near impossible. Well, I’m here to tell you…
Predicting longer term trends is a piece of cake. It’s the short term that is more difficult, especially when governments think they need to keep the economy and markets alive with endless stimulus and manipulation (they’re idiots… and nuts).
What makes long-term forecasting so easy is our three key “Macro Cycles” that combine to drive the fundamental trends for our economy. When they are all positive together you have a near-guaranteed boom.
The last time all three cycles were full-out bullish was between 1993 and 2000. The next all-out bullish cycle is between 2023 and 2036.
So what are these three cycles? They are…
1) The Spending Wave
2) The Geopolitical Cycle, and
3) Technology S-Curve Accelerations.
Let’s look at the S-Curve first…
The last mainstream technology revolution converged around the Internet as it accelerated from 10% to 90% of households in the U.S. between 1993/1994 and 2007/2008.
The chart below shows how major technology S-Curves overlap with the Internet revolution now maturing AND the nanotechnology revolution emerging (which includes biotech, robotics and alternative energy). You’ll see that they’re set to surge between around 2022/2023 and 2036/2037.
This means higher productivity and earnings. Some manufacturing advantages could shift back towards the wealthier developed countries. (Just don’t expect to see major impacts from these technologies until a decade from now.)
The simple logic here is that the last revolution matures after 90% penetration, while the next one is emerging into niche markets, from 0.1% to 10%. Then that next revolution accelerates mainstream. This occurs every 28 to 30 years. And each major S-Curve acceleration lasts 14 to 15 years… then the overlap period follows for another 14 to 15 years.
But our most critical economic cycle is the Spending Wave wherein new generations enter the workforce in increasing numbers and earn and spend more money until their kids leave the nest.
Today people reach their peak spending point around age 46. When we lag the U.S. birth index by 46 years, it’s possible to see when spending will increase and when it will taper off.
That’s how we predicted a boom from 1983 through 2007.
That’s how we forecast the downturn from 2008 into 2020/2022.
And that’s how we know when the next boom will take place. This cycle turns up again from 2023 into 2036 as the Echo Boomer generation moves through its predictable spending wave.
Then there’s our third macro cycle…
The Geopolitical Cycle shifts from positive to negative every 18 years. 1983 to 2000 was the last positive cycle. That turned negative in 2001 and created a market that moved more sideways than up, despite positive generation and technology cycles at first. This should last into around 2019, at which point it will flip to the positive again until about 2036 – 2037.
This puts all three macro cycles into boom mode at the same time between 2023 and 2036! It’s like the opposite of a perfect storm. Boy, would I love to be president in that time frame! That will make the next Dwight Eisenhower, Ronald Reagan or Bill Clinton.
So on those days when it feels like the end of America has come, look at those dates tattooed on your hand.
P.S. Does anyone have any ideas what you’d call the opposite of a perfect storm? Share your ideas with me on our Facebook page.
Ahead of the Curve with Adam O’Dell
There’s no doubt highly-specialized technology expertise give companies a competitive advantage. And it’s no surprise that the handful of companies that have a lock on the world’s best technology come from already developed, wealthy nations.