And just like that, it’s the third and final day of our Irrational Economic Summit in Palm Beach, Florida.
The first two days went off without a hitch (mostly), and brought a ton of useful information to our attendees. I have no doubt that today will be the same.
I hope you’ve had a chance to follow along with us on Twitter, using #IESPALMBEACH. But, in case you happened to miss yesterday’s events and my emails, here’s some of what went on in the afternoon…
After a brief lunch break, Raoul Pal took the stage to cover his macro view of the global economy. I really enjoyed watching his presentation, and not just because of the British accent.
Raoul’s framework is based on the Business Cycle, which dates all the way back to ancient Egyptian times. The premise is pretty easy to follow: returns are weak when the Business Cycle is weak, and they strengthen when the Business Cycle is strong.
You get one guess to figure out where this cycle is right now…
That’s right! We’ve hit a low period. Raoul actually told us that his “spidey senses” are on high alert because all signs are pointing toward a coming recession (if we aren’t in one already)…
Asset prices have hit recession territory as the ISM continues to weaken, global trade is falling fast, oil prices are a disaster, and equities are looking precarious.
What’s the one bright spot in all this darkness, you ask?
Well, lucky for us, it’s the dollar.
Raoul Pal explains why the dollar will rule in the days ahead.
Raoul explained it like this: when the rest of the world slows down and selling to the States declines, all of those other countries who aren’t exporting to our shores are short on U.S. currency. So, as of right now, the rest of the world is desperate for the dollar.
It was about this time that Charles, who was sitting next to me, leaned over and said, “I think I’ve got an analytical man crush on Pal.” (I’m being dead serious by the way; you can’t make this stuff up.)
Up next was Sequinox President Joe Wirbick, who offered some very helpful insight to audience members either close to, or beginning to plan for, their retirement.
Joe has three keys to success when it comes to retiring happy, and with enough money to last throughout your golden years. The best part is that he said you don’t actually need to retire with millions in the bank to have met retirement “success” – a common myth that most people fall for.
Instead, really focus on preserving the money that you’re making today. Then, and here’s the important part…. use Social Security to your benefit!
Not sure how? Don’t worry. Joe explains it all right here.
Up next after Joe was John Del Vecchio, our resident forensic accountant.
John has a brand new service called Hidden Profits. Its mission? To find companies that actually pay their shareholders first before themselves because, let’s face it – most companies don’t give a damn about their investors.
The real trick is finding companies that pose the least risk to you if you sink your money into them, and let me tell you, John’s got this one down to a science.
See, risk is measured by…
- Company value
- Earnings quality
- Shareholder yield
Once you’ve found companies of quality that pose a minimal amount of risk to you (I say minimal, because no company is 100% bulletproof), you need to find an investment that’s on sale.
Now, don’t worry if this seems a bit daunting. John acknowledged at the beginning of his session that Hidden Profits could be a real bear. In fact, one woman wanted to come and see his speech but was afraid that she wouldn’t understand any of it.
That’s why John gave audience members a real recommendation that they can pull the trigger on today – and for this first one, he’s done all the work for you!
Oh, and that lady I mentioned? She ended up coming to the session anyway, and I promise: if she didn’t run away screaming, you won’t either.
John talking to Raoul after his general session.
Last to present for the day, but certainly not the least, was George Gilder, Co-founder of the Discovery Institute. His provocative presentation was titled “The Scandal of Money,” and boy, is that a topic most relevant today!
George has a truly philosophical view of money. After he left the stage Harry said, “That man is way smarter than me.”
That’s saying something!
George’s point is that wealth is knowledge, and if that’s the case, then growth is the act of learning. Information, when it comes to us, is the surprise.
And humans? We’re the driving force of demographics. We’re complex, not just a box of incentives responding aimlessly to outside stimuli. It’s because of that inherently human trait that man won’t allow himself to be manipulated by incentives fostered by the government – especially over something as scarce as money.
And speaking of money, George has a really interesting take on Bitcoin. To find out what that is, and to perhaps get a firmer grasp on his unique philosophy, check out George’s presentation for yourself.
Let me tell you, IES is not for the faint of heart. After only a brief, 10-minute respite following the presentations, it was back to the races for our first round of workshops.
I can’t go into every one of them now, but I will say that one of the workshops that I went to last night was hosted by Harry, and Brexit was the topic. Before last night, I thought I’d heard everything there was to say about the implications of this historic vote, but then Harry managed to shock me with one bold statement about globalization.
Be sure to read the next email that I send you later today.
Among the lineup of speakers presenting this morning is Dr. Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management. Harry has said time and again that Lacy is one of his favorite economists, and I’ve heard rumor that the presentation he’s giving today on the U.S. budget (or lack thereof) will be more than a little eye-opening.
In fact, Lacy’s on stage now, so I’ve really got to dash!
I’ll meet up with you again this evening to discuss Josh Bennett’s domestic asset protection plan…
Explain how Ben uses more than 3.9 million pieces of market communication to tune into the “unheard voice” of Wall Street…
Provide you with the opportunities that the RMB Group’s Barry Potekin sees lying outside of the stock market…
And show you how Lance profits from interest rate volatility.
For now, reporting to you live from Palm Beach,
Your 2016 IES On-the-Ground Reporter