I sent this update to paid subscribers on Friday. It’s critical, so I’m sharing it here with ALL Economy & Market readers today…

On December 19, I sent an Economy & Markets email about the similarity between the internet bubble and crash and the bitcoin bubble today.

At the time, I saw two possible scenarios. Both are still viable today, but the degree of the 60% crash in Bitcoin tells me that we’re most likely experiencing scenario two, where the cryptocurrency hit its top near $20,000.

That doesn’t take scenario one out of the running. There’s still a remote chance that Bitcoin could surge back and break above $20,000, after which it would be curtains.

Neither scenario is good news for stocks (and next week I’ll reveal the new leading indicator I’ve found that shows an eight-week lag or so between Bitcoin and stock market moves… look out for that in Economy & Markets tomorrow).

For now though, here are some updated charts…

The internet bubble saw a 46% crash in 1999 before rocketing to a new high in early 2000. The Bitcoin bubble has already seen a 60% crash, which makes a new high or scenario one less likely. But it is still possible if we can hold the recent 8,800 lows at 60% down from the top.

That said, this recent crash makes scenario two look more likely, especially if it goes down further.

That scenario would see a crash down to as low as $800 to $1,000 on Bitcoin, which would be down more than 95% from the top.

That would be a signal of bubble worry for the stock market, as I will show tomorrow in Economy & Markets.

The coming weeks are critical.

Any new lows in Bitcoin would strengthen the likelihood of scenario two unfolding – that Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies peaked around $20,000 and the stock market will follow on about an eight- to nine-week lag.

Look out for tomorrow’s email on that new leading indicator.

Harry
Follow Me on Twitter @harrydentjr

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Harry Dent
Harry S. Dent Jr. studied economics in college in the ’70s, but found it vague and inconclusive. He became so disillusioned by the state of his chosen profession that he turned his back on it. Instead, he threw himself into the burgeoning new science of finance where identifying and studying demographic, technological, consumer and many, many other trends empowered him to forecast economic changes. Since then, he’s spoken to executives, financial advisors and investors around the world. He’s appeared on “Good Morning America,” PBS, CNBC and CNN/Fox News. He’s been featured in Barron’s, Investor’s Business Daily, Entrepreneur, Fortune, Success, U.S. News and World Report, Business Week, The Wall Street Journal, American Demographics and Omni. He is a regular guest on Fox Business’s “America’s Nightly Scorecard.” In his latest book, Zero Hour: Turn the Greatest Political and Financial Upheaval in Modern History to Your Advantage, Harry Dent reveals why the greatest social, economic, and political upheaval since the American Revolution is on our doorstep. Discover how its combined effects could cause stocks to crash as much as 80% beginning just weeks from now…crippling your wealth now and for the rest of your life. Harry arms you with the tools you need to financially prepare and survive as the world we know is turned upside down! Today, he uses the research he developed from years of hands-on business experience to offer readers a positive, easy-to-understand view of the economic future by heading up Dent Research, in his flagship newsletter, Boom & Bust.